On Monday's night's Tonight Show, Cowell told Jay Leno, "I would say (his chances are) pretty good, pretty good. I'm going to say he's the favorite – but what do I know?"
For the final two, Cowell sees the graying 29-year-old from Birmingham, Ala., going up against Katharine McPhee. "Based on last week, absolutely she should have gone," he said. "But you know, she's got a fighting chance. I think she'll make the final – and I'll tell you why, because I'm choosing one of her songs this week."
That would mean Paula Abdul's favorite, Elliot Yamin, is the next to go. Last week, Abdul told Teen People, "I am going to be honest with you – I want Elliott to win."
The winner will be named May 24.