Mickey Rourke
Seve Granitz/WireImage
With 31 days to go before gold statues are handed out in Hollywood on Feb. 22, here's a cheat sheet to help hone your own forecasting on who will win in the major categories.
Best Picture: The race is between audience favorites Benjamin Button, which has 13 nominations, and Slumdog Miillionaire, which has 10 nominations. Button feels important – big stars (Brad Pitt! Cate Blanchett!) and a tush-testing 2 ½ hour running time – but this just may be the year when the little feel-good movie in Hindi with English subtitles, that would be Slumdog, wins the big prize. (Also nominated: Frost/Nixon, Milk and The Reader.) Line to use at the water cooler: Slumdog is a slam dunk!
Best Actor: It's a strong category this year, with the two favorites being Sean Penn, who played gay and actually cracked a smile (was that a first?) as martyred homosexual activist Harvey Milk in Milk, and Mickey Rourke, who returned from years of career obscurity with a knockout performance as an aging pro grappler in The Wrestler. Rourke is the sentimental favorite and who doesn't want to see him thank his dogs again, as he did when he won a Golden Globe earlier this month? (Also nominated: Richard Jenkins for The Visitor, Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon and Pitt for Benjamin Button.) Line to use at the water cooler: Mickey Rourke rules!
Best Actress: Tough call. Though a seemingly perennial nominee, Meryl Streep, who was nominated this year for her gruff nun in Doubt, hasn't taken home an Oscar since 1983, when she won for Sophie's Choice. In recent years, though, Oscar has been trending young in the lead actress category, which augers well for Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married and Kate Winslett for The Reader. (Also nominated: Angelina Jolie for Changeling and Melissa Leo for Frozen River). Line to use at the water cooler: Never vote against a nun; Meryl has God on her side.
Best Supporting Actor: Exactly a year after his death from an accidental drug overdose, Heath Ledger deservedly earned a nomination for his brilliantly disturbing turn as The Joker in The Dark Knight. He's the clear favorite, especially given that the film didn't land a Best Director or Best Picture nomination. (Also nominated: Josh Brolin for Milk, Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder, Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt, and Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road.) Line to use at the water cooler: I'll bet you a lifetime supply of Heath bars that Heath Ledger wins.
Best Supporting Actress: This category often goes to a relative newcomer and if there's going to be a surprise winner on Oscar night, it could be this award going to Taraji P. Henson for playing Pitt's adoptive mother in Benjamin Button. Her performance was warm and engaging and she has turned on the charm in recent appearances on the talk show circuit, which helps when one is campaigning for an Oscar. Viola Davis, an actress who always delivers, is a standout in Doubt, but her chances may be hurt because costar Amy Adams is also competing in the same category. (Also nominated: Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler.) Line to use at the water cooler: This one's a toss-up, but I'm getting a good vibe on Taraji B. Henson.
I could be wrong on all of these, but what I do know for sure is that Hugh Jackman will be charming and dapper making his debut as host of the telecast. Line to use at the water cooler: Who cares who wins? I'm just watching for Hugh.
The 81st Academy Awards will be broadcast live on Sunday, Feb. 22, from Hollywood's Kodak Theatre at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
