Lady Gaga and Whitney Houston
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Album of the Year
There's no clear front-runner for this year's big prize, but it's always hard to bet against U2 – which is why I'm tapping No Line on the Horizon even though it was not as big as 2004's Grammy-winning How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb. It's also pretty hard to deny Taylor Swift with the mega-selling Fearless and her recent sweep at the CMAs. And the Black Eyed Peas, with not one but two No. 1 smashes ("Boom Boom Pow" and "I Gotta Feeling") on The E.N.D. (Energy Never Dies), are also primed for some Grammy love. Maxwell fills the R&B slot with BLACKsummers'night, a comeback album that was both a critical and commercial success, while Green Day's ambitious rock opera, 21st Century Breakdown, is the kind of work that Grammy voters embrace.
But keep an eye on: Beyoncé, I Am ... Sasha Fierce; Lady Gaga, The Fame; Whitney Houston, I Look to You; Allen Toussaint, The Bright Mississippi; and Kanye West, 808s & Heartbreak
Record of the Year
For Beyoncé, a Grammy favorite, it's a matter of which of her big singles will be nominated here: "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)" or "Halo." Count on one of them to make the cut. As for the Peas, their summer anthem "I Gotta Feeling," awash in feel-good vibes, is likely to get the nod over "Boom Boom Pow." Like "I Gotta Feeling," Lady Gaga's "Poker Face" was so inescapable that it's sure to receive a nomination. For voters, it’s the perfect mix of pop craft and pop culture. Meanwhile, Green Day's "21 Guns" and Kings of Leon's "Use Somebody" are the type of lighter-waving power ballads that traditionally get recognized in this category.
But keep an eye on: Jay-Z featuring Rihanna and Kanye West, "Run This Town"; Maxwell, "Pretty Wings"; Taylor Swift, "You Belong with Me"; U2, "Magnificent" or "I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight"; and Kanye West, "Heartless."
Song of the Year
This category distinguishes the song from the production, which is why melodic ballads like Green Day's "21 Guns" and Kings of Leon's "Use Somebody" are usually favored over trendier fare. An old-school R&B tune like Maxwell's "Pretty Wings" is also Grammy catnip here, especially given the fact that it was a long-running hit for the neo-soul star. Beyoncé gives voters the option of going for something cool ("Single Ladies") or classy ("Halo"). Lastly, Taylor Swift's "You Belong with Me" is a sweet ditty impossible to ignore, a nod to this star's songwriting chops at just 19.
But keep an eye on: Diane Birch, "Nothing but a Miracle"; Lady Gaga, "Poker Face"; Bruce Springsteen, "Working on a Dream"; U2, "Magnificent" or "I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight"; and Kanye West, "Heartless."
Best New Artist
If Lady Gaga had been eligible in this category, the trophy would be hers. But since she isn't, the field is pretty open. Typically, one country act and at least one R&B artist get nominated. I’m picking Zac Brown Band – on the strength of their hits "Chicken Fried," "Whatever It Is" and "Toes" – to nab the country spot. Meanwhile, Keri Hilson, a respected songwriter who finally got her moment in the spotlight, is likely to win a nod for her R&B debut. Diane Birch is the kind of '70s-style singer-songwriter who usually pops up here, while MGMT, with their groovy electro-pop, have that hip quotient going for them. And nothing helps as much as a No. 1 hit, which Owl City has in "Fireflies."
But keep an eye on: The Airborne Toxic Event, Cobra Starship, Gloriana, Laura Izibor and The Ting Tings
Watch the 52nd Annual Grammy Awards on Jan. 31 at 8 p.m. ET/PT, live on CBS – and catch up on all the news and style from the show on PEOPLE.com!
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