Best PICTURE
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
The argument for The Social Network is that it's the movie of the moment, but it's The King's Speech that truly wrestles with modernity. War looms, royals behave badly, and a damnable new social media contraption-the radio-threatens to erase the lines between public and private. That sounds awfully current to me. Toss in stellar performances and terrific writing, and it's clear why King deserves the crown.
Best ACTOR
Javier Bardem
Biutiful
Jeff Bridges
True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg
The Social Network
Colin Firth
The King's Speech
James Franco
127 Hours
As much as I hate the notion that it's an actor's "turn" to win, it's Firth's turn. He has a history of great work, and even in this year of brilliant competition, his performance lingers. The part demanded that he be all things: magisterial but human, stern but funny, halting in his speech but innately understandable. No one else managed that.
Best DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky
Black Swan
David O. Russell
The Fighter
Tom Hooper
The King's Speech
David Fincher
The Social Network
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
True Grit
Without the snubbed Christopher Nolan (Inception) and Danny Boyle (127 Hours), this isn't a fair fight. That said, the intriguing Aronofsky did a masterful job of pivoting Black Swan from psychodrama to camp, while getting brilliant performances from all his actors.
Best ACTRESS
Annette Bening
The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman
Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence
Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman
Black Swan
Michelle Williams
Blue Valentine
Honestly, I wasn't sure Portman would end up as a serious contender. Not only is she competing with a handful of deeply respected vets and an exciting newbie but Black Swan is, to put it kindly, wackadoodle. It's also excellent, though, and Portman is the best she's ever been in that delightfully garish swan getup. She lets the camera in as intimately as possible and makes her vulnerability come from the inside out.
Best SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale
The Fighter
John Hawkes
Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner
The Town
Mark Ruffalo
The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush
The King's Speech
There are flashier actors in the category (that's right, Bale, I'm eyeballing you), but Rush delivers the quintessential supporting performance as an impish speech therapist to a King. By turns imperious and humble, his character is so funny that you truly feel Rush and costar Colin Firth are the oldest, warmest and best of friends.
More PICKS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Aaron Sorkin's wickedly literate script for The Social Network will and should win.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Lisa Cholodenko's nod may be The Kids Are All Right's best shot at Oscar gold.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
It makes no sense that a doc about street artists turning their cameras on each other would be so intriguing, but that's exactly why Exit Through the Gift Shop deserves some love.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
I'm a sucker for almost anything animated, but the emotional heft, expert plotting and technical artistry of Toy Story 3 are undeniable. It was one of the best movies of 2010, period.
Best SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams
The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter
The King's Speech
Melissa Leo
The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld
True Grit
Jacki Weaver
Animal Kingdom
The odds of Adams tearing little Oscar out of front-runner Leo's hands are fairly slim. But man, I love a surprise, and Adams was positively shocking in The Fighter, coming off goody-goody roles in movies like Enchanted and Doubt to play one helluva broad. I can't wait to see how she knocks me out next time.
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